Scotland are now two matches deep into this year’s 6 Nations tournament and in this time they have shown both elements of strength but also vulnerability. The quality gap in their opposition gave a great base for comparison, as they initially faced off against a decent Italy team and then against a world beating Irish team. Let’s delve into the statistics to understand how these games unfolded and what they mean for Scotland’s campaign.
Possession and Territory: Dominating the Ball
Scotland’s core strategy has been clear: control possession. Against Italy, they held 58% of the ball, slightly dropping to 57% against Ireland. This consistent possession suggests Scotland’s intent to dictate the game’s pace, potentially wearing down their opponents through sustained periods of play. This approach has been fundamental in setting the tempo but has shown varying results based on execution.
Attack: From Effective to Efficient
The Scottish attack was notably more potent against Italy, with 22.8 minutes of attacking play leading to 5 tries. However, this efficiency waned against Ireland, where despite 20.3 minutes of attack, only 2 tries were scored. The reduction from 162 carries against Italy to 130 against Ireland, coupled with a significant drop in metres carried from 1014.2 to 670.9, highlights a decrease in attacking momentum. This could reflect Ireland’s defensive strengths or perhaps Scotland’s struggle to break through a more organised defence.
Kicking Game: A Strategic Shift
Scotland’s kicking strategy saw a marked change between the two matches. From 28 kicks against Italy, which covered 748.4 meters, to just 18 kicks against Ireland totalling 348.6 meters, there’s a clear shift towards less reliance on kicking. This might indicate a tactical decision to keep the ball in hand more often against Ireland or perhaps a reaction to Ireland’s control over territory through their own kicking game.
Defensive Efforts: Holding the Line
Defensively, Scotland showed resilience in both games, though there was a slight dip in performance against Ireland. They managed 131 tackles against Italy with an impressive 89.12% success rate, but this fell to 99 tackles with an 87.61% success rate against Ireland. We would assume that Ireland provide a tougher challenge in this regard and create more pressure situations for Scotland, in turn, affecting their tackle efficiency.
Discipline: The Discipline Dilemma
Discipline is crucial in rugby, and Scotland’s record shows a slight decline. From conceding 8 penalties against Italy, they moved to 9 against Ireland, with an increase in offensive penalties from 3 to 5. The addition of a yellow card against Ireland could have momentarily shifted the game’s momentum, highlighting the fine balance between aggression and control that Scotland needs to maintain.
Breakdown Mastery: Quick Ball, Quick Play
At the breakdown, Scotland improved their efficiency against Ireland, winning 103 rucks compared to 123 against Italy, but with a higher percentage of rucks won within 0-3 seconds (63.54% vs 52.99%). This suggests a more streamlined approach at the ruck, potentially due to better decision-making or quicker ball movement, crucial for maintaining the fast-paced style Scotland aimed for.
Set Piece Stability: A Mixed Bag
Scotland’s set piece was a stronghold against Italy, with perfect lineout records and no scrums lost. Against Ireland, however, they lost one scrum and one lineout, which might have been pivotal in terms of territory and possession. The slight edge in scrums won by Ireland (8 vs Scotland’s 5) and the lineout steal by Scotland (1) show a closely contested set piece battle, at a level where small margins make big differences.
Kicking for Points: Conversion and Penalty Dynamics
In terms of kicking at goal, Scotland was less effective against Ireland than Italy. While they didn’t attempt any penalty kicks against Italy, they successfully converted 2 out of 2 against Ireland, which could have been crucial. However, their conversion rate dropped from 3 out of 5 to 1 out of 2, possibly costing them points they needed.
Conclusion: Lessons from the Stats
Scotland’s performance in these two matches paints a picture of a team with a clear strategy but facing different challenges. Against Italy, their control over possession and effective attack led to a decisive victory. Against Ireland, although they maintained possession, the execution in attack, discipline, and conversion efficiency were less optimal, leading to a tighter game. The data suggests Scotland could benefit from refining their attacking play, and perhaps adapt their kicking strategy to better suit the opposition. As the tournament progresses, we would hope to see them build on the solid possession based game they have brought to the tournament and execute the small things against very strong opposition. Next up, England.
