When the final whistle went on Scotland’s 85–0 demolition of the USA, attention inside Murrayfield flipped almost instantly to the next challenge: the All Blacks, back in Edinburgh and still unbeaten by Scotland after 120 years of trying.
Nobody in the home camp is getting carried away by a rout of a weakened Eagles side, but there’s a quiet conviction around this Scotland squad that feels different. The question hanging over the week is simple enough: if not now, when?
A rivalry Scotland have never won
Scotland first faced New Zealand in 1905 at Inverleith, in the days before Murrayfield existed. They lost 12–7. Since then, the ledger has barely budged in their favour: 32 Tests, 30 All Black wins, 2 draws, and not a single Scottish victory.
Those two drawn matches have become part of Scottish rugby folklore. The 0–0 stalemate in 1964, when Scotland held a touring All Blacks side that had already beaten Ireland, Wales and England, remains one of the game’s most famous defensive efforts.
Nineteen years later, in 1983, Jim Pollock’s late try and Peter Dods’ missed touchline conversion preserved a 25–25 draw and denied Scotland an historic win by inches.
If the past was mainly about heroic rearguard actions, the modern era has been about near-misses built on ambition.
- In 2014, Scotland trailed by a single point inside the final 10 minutes before a Jeremy Thrush try pushed New Zealand clear to a 24–16 win.
- In 2017, they were one break away in the last play – Stuart Hogg tackled just short – from stealing a game that finished 22–17 to the visitors.
- In 2022, Scotland recovered from 14–0 down to lead 23–14, only to see the All Blacks dominate the final quarter and win 31–23.
Those games have fed a nagging belief: Scotland can live with the All Blacks for long stretches. The problem has always been finishing the job.
Scotland’s form: points, depth and genuine competition
The USA game won’t tell Gregor Townsend much about how his team copes under stress, but it does underline how much depth Scotland now have. Thirteen tries, hat-tricks for Darcy Graham and Jamie Dobie, a double for Duhan van der Merwe on his 50th cap, and a clean sheet on the scoreboard is about as ruthless as you can reasonably expect.
That win was achieved without several established starters who are expected to come back in this week. Players based in England and France – including Finn Russell, Ben White and likely Blair Kinghorn and Sione Tuipulotu – were unavailable against the USA but are set to rejoin the squad for New Zealand.
That creates real selection pressure in key areas:
- Scrum-half: Dobie’s hat-trick and sharp control against the Eagles adds heat to an already crowded race with Ben White and George Horne.
- Midfield: Tuipulotu’s return plus Stafford McDowall’s strong recent form gives Scotland a powerful, settled centre combination to attack New Zealand’s 10–12 channel.
- Back three: Kinghorn, Graham, Van der Merwe, Kyle Rowe and Ollie Smith all have credible claims; that’s not a luxury Scotland have always enjoyed.
Up front, the equation is even simpler: if Scotland don’t at least break even in the collisions, none of the pretty stuff out wide will matter. Zander Fagerson’s return from a long injury lay-off is enormous; he hasn’t played since April, but Scotland’s scrum and ruck security are plainly stronger with him fit and firing.
Townsend also has to decide whether to double down on power with a 6–2 bench split – six forwards, two backs – in anticipation of the usual All Blacks late surge. That kind of bench would allow him to unleash extra carrying and line-speed in the final quarter, exactly where recent Tests have slipped away.
All Blacks: not invincible, but still deadly late
This is not the untouchable All Blacks machine of certain eras, but they remain a team who win most of their big games and almost never panic.
Their 26–13 victory over Ireland in Chicago was a reminder of that. Reduced to 14 men early when Tadhg Beirne was sent off, Ireland still led 10–7 at half-time and 13–7 going into the final quarter, before New Zealand’s bench tilted the contest. Three tries in the last 20 minutes turned a tight struggle into a comfortable-looking scoreline.
That pattern – absorb, hang around, then punish every mistake in the closing stages – is depressingly familiar to Scottish fans who watched the 2022 meeting at Murrayfield.
There is, however, some roughness around the edges. New Zealand came into this tour still digesting a record defeat to South Africa, and the Chicago performance was patchy for long spells before the late surge.
They also have injury worries. Captain Scott Barrett went off early in Chicago with a deep cut to his leg that required stitches, while midfield lynchpin Jordie Barrett left in the first half with an ankle and knee problem. Both are in Edinburgh but will only be cleared after further scans, leaving real doubt over their involvement at Murrayfield.
Even if the Barretts are absent, New Zealand can still roll out a backline brimming with pace and game-breaking talent. What Scotland can perhaps exploit is the fact that this All Blacks side is still bedding in under Scott Robertson, and has shown vulnerability when pressured for long periods.
Why this might be Scotland’s moment
Put the pieces together and you can see why people are starting to whisper that Scotland have a genuine shot.
- Recent evidence they can outplay New Zealand for long stretchesIn 2022, Scotland scored 23 points without reply across 52 minutes, flipping a 14–0 deficit into a 23–14 lead before losing control. That wasn’t a fluke; it was sustained dominance built on quick ball, Finn Russell’s variety, and a backline brave enough to attack in the 13 channel and beyond.
- More depth than ever beforeThe current squad blends hardened Test performers (Russell, Tuipulotu, Van der Merwe, Jack Dempsey, Zander Fagerson) with form players pushing hard from underneath (Dobie, McDowall, Kyle Rowe, Liam McConnell). The USA match showed that Scotland can rotate heavily and still maintain attacking structure and intensity.
- Continuity in coaching and systemsWhatever you think of Gregor Townsend’s tenure, the attacking framework and defensive system are well embedded now. Scotland no longer look like a team that needs everything to be perfect for 80 minutes; they can absorb setbacks and still punch back, as they did in the middle hour against New Zealand in 2022.
- An All Blacks side in transitionNew Zealand are still winning, but they are not the relentless side of, say, 2013–2015. They have a new head coach, emerging combinations, and are coming off a tough, stop-start match in Chicago followed by long-haul travel straight to Scotland.
None of this makes Scotland favourites. But it does mean belief is no longer just blind optimism.
What Scotland have to get right
Belief is one thing; breaking a 120-year drought is another. For Scotland to finally beat New Zealand, a few non-negotiables stand out.
1. Win – or at least break even – in the contact area
New Zealand’s late surges are usually built on quick possession and relentless carrying. Scotland have to slow that ball, especially in the final quarter, and avoid the soft penalties that gifted territory in 2022. That points towards a bench loaded with abrasive forwards and at least one impact jackal to target turnovers.
2. Manage the kicking battle smartly
The All Blacks are lethal when counter-attacking from poor kicks. Scotland’s back three selection and their ability to kick contestably – and to chase in coherent lines – will dictate whether they play in the right areas or invite trouble.
3. Composure when ahead
The harshest lesson from 2014, 2017 and 2022 is what happens when Scotland sniff history and tighten up. Whether it was a lost line-out, a rash penalty or a yellow card, composure slipped just as the All Blacks found another gear.
This generation has more big-game experience than most of its predecessors; now it has to show it.
4. Use their attacking strengths, not just survive
Scotland’s best rugby against elite sides has come when they’ve attacked with ambition – multi-phase, using Russell’s passing range, Tuipulotu’s directness and the finishing power of Graham and Van der Merwe. Retreating into a boot-only game and hoping to cling on for 80 minutes against the All Blacks is a recipe for the same old outcome.
Daring to say it out loud
New Zealand remain favourites. Their jersey still carries a weight of history – three World Cups, a win rate that sits among the highest in any sport, and a 30-2 head-to-head record against Scotland.
But for perhaps the first time, the idea of a Scottish win doesn’t feel fanciful. It feels conditional: if the pack fronts up, ifScotland play with the same courage that built those big leads in 2017 and 2022, and if they hold their nerve in the last 20 minutes.
For a century, the All Blacks fixture has been about dignity in defeat and stories of what might have been. This week at Murrayfield, Scotland have a genuine chance to write something entirely new. Whether they take it or not is another matter – but for once, belief is based on evidence, not just hope.
